The future belongs to countries and firms that do not drag their feet on artificial intelligence, according to a discussion paper from the McKinsey Global Institute.
McKinsey’s research simulated the effects of AI adoption on economies worldwide and fate of companies which failed to adapt to the “full range” of AI: natural language processing, virtual assistants, computer vision, machine learning, and robotic process automation.
A summary of the McKinsey report can be found in Internet of Business:
Taking into account competition effects and transition costs, AI could potentially deliver additional economic output of about 1.2 percent a year over the next 12 years – a cumulative emergence of benefits, adding up to $13 trillion by 2030.
The report says, “Our simulation suggests that the adoption of AI by firms may follow an S-curve pattern – a slow start, given the investment associated with learning and deploying the technology, and then acceleration driven by competition and improvements in complementary capabilities.” As a result, AI’s contribution to growth may be three or more times higher by 2030 than it is over the next five years.
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There could also be a widening gap between companies, with frontrunners potentially doubling their returns by 2030 and companies that delay adoption falling behind, says McKinsey. Front-runners will tend to have a strong digital base, a higher propensity to invest in AI, and positive views of the business case for the technology.
